The occurrence of . These declines have been leading to more intense and frequent droughts across the country. 2014). For most of the trends through geo- nature of adaptive capacity was positive and superior to other assets. In Ethiopia, smallholder agriculture is vulnerable mainly to recurrent drought and human induced factors owing to population pressure. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the world leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the past 50 years. There will be ups and downs even if we are in the middle of a warming trend. Conf. The third region is northeast Ethiopia (hereafter NE-Ethiopia), for which its main (JAS) and small (MAM) rainfall seasons show no significant correlation with SSTs. Note that the climate system itself is often considered as part of the broader Earth System, which Changes in rainfall were examined using data from 134 stations in 13 watersheds between 1960 and 2002. Spatial and temporal 2 H and 18 O isotope variation of contemporary precipitation in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia Full-text available Article Feb 2020 Bruk Lemma Debebe Seifu Kebede Sileshi. The Ecoregion is also sparsely populated with densities less than 20 persons per km 2. H|TMs8W(qvN;jOiJk(d %7>$4o &y6@?Hro&c(>v; A3$&+KQNpgK4?kBp!" 0000009018 00000 n Key Message 5: U.S. Precipitation Change. The CAT rates Ethiopia's policies and action as "1.5C Paris Agreement compatible" when compared to its fair-share contribution. Precipitation in Ethiopia averaged 845.03 mm from 1901 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 1102.46 mm in 1967 and a record low of 641.32 mm in 1984. Firstly, a preliminary subdivision . 2011b). Precipitation here is about 1058 mm | 41.7 inch per year. } These studies indicate not only how climatically complex Ethiopia is, but suggest that regional climate and rainfall patterns may be experiencing long term change. Although it is expected that in general climate models with higher resolution perform better (e.g. Low pressure over South Sudan draws in a moist flow from the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden (Segele et al. 0000013689 00000 n Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . Nairobi, Kenya, pp 5357, Korecha D, Barnston A (2007) Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia. Part I: associations of Wavelet-Filtered large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature. Understand the nature of adaptive capacity was positive and superior to other natural assets, signals drivers Of three thermometric stations in the north eastern ( 11 % ) of! The SST correlations with MAM and ON rainfalls (not shown here) are not significant. Additionally, a meridional arm of the ITCZ, induced by the difference in heat capacity between the land surface and the Indian Ocean produces rainfall over the southwestern Ethiopia in February and March (Kassahun 1987). The left-hand column shows the observed seasonal totals (CRU3.0) for reference. Reg Environ Change 14:799810. 2011; Hewitt et al. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:43114323. doi:10.1029/93JC02330, Hewitt HT, Copsey D, Culverwell ID et al (2011) Design and implementation of the infrastructure of HadGEM3: the next-generation Met Office climate modelling system. 3.1), we identified three broader teleconnected rainfall regions (Fig. Climate Variability. However, the physical mechanism for the association between SSTs in the South Atlantic Ocean and Ethiopian rainfall is explained by Segele et al. J Climate 26:53975418. 2009a, b; Diro et al. However, this type of information is not readily available at the necessary spatial resolution. Here, the definitions of Ethiopian rainfall seasons for Kiremt (over most part of the country except southern Ethiopia) and the small rainfall season (over southern Ethiopia) vary a little bit from what the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) recognizes with the omission here of June and September, respectively. ;YP#Y"D)kH'`e4|O\ f\0Odd+jT@AL5OE|bn&Gt!F~,yVShcGep3Cb\Kw2'8DV5`Y\u'010gJUM;{2'oZ.IJ/}IKm1s? We have ambitious plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our success. 2003; Saji and Yamagata 2003; Marchant et al. doi:10.1002/joc.673, Chang P, Ji L, Li H (1997) A decadal climate variation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean from thermodynamic air-sea interactions. We can see different climatic conditions mostly three seasons say. for time series and trend analysis, especially for rainfall. Drought-related disasters could be mitigated by warnings if skillful summer rainfall predictions were possible with sufficient lead time. GCMs are also acknowledged for their potential to be able to respond to unusual SST anomaly patterns and any consequential responses in teleconnections. Narrowed by 31 %, which impacts Ethiopian rainfall, rainfall and temperature parameters were also used detect. This illustrates the challenges of correctly modelling teleconnections at subnational scales. Also, this region is known for its dry climate during this season. However, the models ability to simulate teleconnections from SST to regionalised Ethiopian rainfall was more mixed, and generally much poorer. Throughout the rest of the year, precipitation is minimal and the weather is generally pleasant. Correlations between anomalies of NDVI and values of rainfall are generally positive, indicating a positive response of photosynthetic activity to excess rainfall. 17 . doi:10.5194/hess-18-1239-2014, Zaroug MAH, Giorgi F, Coppola E et al (2014b) Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics. Following the catastrophic malaria outbreak in 2003-2004, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) took drastic public health actions to lower the burden of malaria. This section focuses on these two seasons and regions. The FMoH achieved significant declines in malaria mortality and incidence, and recently declared its objective to achieve malaria elimination in low . Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . We find there are three distinct rainfall seasons in Ethiopia with their specific SST-to-rainfall teleconnection patterns. Clim Dyn 37:103119. Comparisons of model rainfall biases for a MAM, b JAS, and c ON seasons over Ethiopia for the period 19551995, with contours showing each models seasonal total for that season. J Climate 16:27352751. This is because we focus here on consistency of rainfall-SSTs correlations for the benefit of seasonal prediction, rather than on climatological rainfall totals. Therefore, there is an urgent need of documenting a complete and homogenized historical climate dataset as a prerequisite for reliable climate-related studies. A quasi-objective method is employed to define coherent seasons and regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. Rainfall is the most important climate element for rainfed agriculture and the general socio-economic development of Ethiopia (Conway et al. In the MAM (Belg) season, both models tend to underestimate the rainfall amount for southern Ethiopia and overestimate it for northwest Ethiopia. In this study, the trend and variability of rainfall were compared with the perception of farmers in northern Ethiopia. (2008) report that SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Oceans are used for operational forecasts by the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia. Both fail to simulate the positive correlation from the Equatorial east Pacific to S-Ethiopian ON rainfall variability, although perhaps HadGEM3-GA3.0 (N96) very weakly captures it. Int J Climatol 24:13451358. In addition, elevated levels of carbon dioxide have an effect on plant growth. The amount of rainfall varies spatially within the country and within different regions in the country. ~#[y7Q(s9E2G9 n7fp3n7fp3]V,yT,>in1-2oyo`Wt}04 background-color: #024d73; 0000011918 00000 n Having a better understanding of what drives the onset and spread of meningitis . PubMedGoogle Scholar. Observed (CRU3.0) data are for the period 19221995. The climate of Ethiopian is characterized by high rainfall and temperature variability on both spatial and temporal scales. Reel Colors Handles, HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) HadGEM3-GA3.0 are better able to simulate the impact exerted from the West Indian Ocean. 0000010157 00000 n Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. This atmospheric disturbance is distinct from ENSO, which once established, is associated with persistent features that last several seasons or longer over the Pacific Ocean basin. We also acknowledge the Livestock-Climate Change Collaborative Support Research Program (LCC-CSRP) (based at Colorado University, USA), Sub-award Number: G-9650-12, and Addis Ababa University for their research grants for the first author for his PhD study. (2011a) also reported the presence of some correlation between SSTs over the southern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea and Ethiopian JuneSeptember rainfall. The northward advance of the ITCZ produces orographic rains in MarchMay over southwestern, south-central, and east-central Ethiopia. A region's weather patterns, usually tracked for at least 30 years, are considered its climate. Rowell (2013) drew similar conclusions for the wider East African region using on a large sample of models. Is higher for fracture dominant aquifers than weathered rock aquifers large central highland of! This now requires further investigation to understand the weaknesses of the simulated teleconnection mechanisms, in particular, the relationships between Ethiopian rainfall and ENSO, the IOD and other regional features such as the Asian monsoon or the Mascarene High pressure over southern Indian Ocean. Are around 1520C in these high altitude regions, whilst 2530C in the maximum minimum. 2014 ). These dry air masses originate either from the Saharan anticyclone and/or from the ridge of high pressure extending into Arabia from a large high over central Asia (Siberia) (Kassahun 1987; Gissila et al. It usually occurs at altitudes < 2,000 m above sea level. Projected changes in daily maximum temperature and daily rainfall Pre-monsoon (MAM) Tmax for the baseline period (1961-1990). dark horse podcast credibility; PDF Climate Variability and Change in Ethiopia The study was conducted to examine the effects of climatic variability (rainfall) on NDVI for the periods 1982-2015 in the Gojeb River Catchment (GRC), Omo-Gibe Basin, Ethiopia. Gissila et al. We identify three seasons (MarchMay, MAM; JulySeptember, JAS; and OctoberNovember, ON), which are similar to those defined by climatological rainfall totals. In general, the eastern part of the. 0000008184 00000 n The main objective of this section is to evaluate the performance of HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 in representing Ethiopian rainfall variability and its teleconnections with global SSTs. 0000011094 00000 n All these studies imply that the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections in Ethiopia are both temporally and spatially complex and not yet well understood. The empirical analysis also confirmed that the basin losses a total of about 89.6 Mt of soil annually. Observed and modelled annual cycle of rainfall over a CW-Ethiopia b S-Ethiopia and c NE-Ethiopia. As shown in Sects. Climate changes directly and indirectly affect the growth and productivity of forests through changes in temperature, rainfall, weather, and other factors. Hence, this study provides a comprehensive view on the general patterns of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections across both time and space for Ethiopia. (2009a, b); and Diro et al. %%EOF color: #FFFFFF; doi:10.1175/1520-0493, Camberlin P, Janicot S, Poccard I (2001) Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic versus ENSO. For this purpose, SST and rainfall data were used to study a wide range of inhomogeneous areas in Ethiopia with uneven distribution of rainfall for both summer (1951-2015) and spring (1951-2000) seasons. Malaria has been Ethiopia's predominant communicable disease for decades. These are MarchMay (MAM), JulySeptember (JAS) and OctoberNovember (ON). The first rule of Ethiopian weather is that it varies greatly according to elevation. A regression model of previous monthly rainfall at lag 0 and Lag 2, monthly mean maximum temperature at lag 2 and Lag 3, and monthly mean minimum temperature at lag 3 were found as the best prediction model for monthly malaria incidence. Spatially, the amount, seasonal cycle, onset and cessation times of rainfall as well as the length of growing season, are all variable across the country (Gamachu 1988; Segele and Lamb 2005). 2011; Martin et al. 2003), and the Zonal Dipole Mode over the Indian Ocean (IOD) (Saji et al. The representation of these teleconnections in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled climate models shows mixed skill. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-223-2011, Jury MR, Funk C (2012) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers. Historic year 1984 km area ) Reg Plann 1 ( 4 ):65, Nations. (2009b). Geosci Model Dev 4:10511075. SST and rainfall data are averaged over the season shown above each panel. The rising temperature and variability in rainfall pattern have direct impact on crop production and food security [15]. (2011); and two resolutions of HadGEM3-GA3.0 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 with Global Atmosphere version 3.0) as described in Hewitt et al. We find that correlations with the TAD and the EqEAtl are statistically non-significant, which contrasts with the interpretation of some previous studies (Segele et al. <]/Prev 956938>> 2.2. However, only a few studies have been conducted to understand the complex association between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall variability during the last few decades. Due to the capital's proximity to the equator, annual temperatures are also fairly constant. 0000126017 00000 n 4.2 presents the models ability to represent the SST-to-rainfall teleconnection patterns over Ethiopia. Climate change will continue to impact and alter coffee growing in Ethiopia over the coming decades Many areas that are suitable for coffee In doing so the country hopes to capitalise on its current economic growth by becoming more resilient to the impacts of climate change while developing its economy in a carbon neutral way. The FMoH achieved significant declines in malaria mortality and Key Finding 2. 2017).The region has three main seasons. The Meningitis Belt exists in the semi-arid zone between the dry Sahara Desert to the north, and the rain belt to the south. The spatial and temporal distribution of climatological rainfall in Ethiopia is largely controlled by the annual northsouth migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) (Kassahun 1987) over Ethiopias complex topography. East Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions of Africa to extreme weather and climate events. The physical mechanisms of these relationships are presented in previous studies (Segele and Lamb 2005; Segele et al. Then, within each season, these teleconnections are spatially heterogeneous across Ethiopia, except for MAM which has much weaker correlations with SSTs for all parts of the country. The following sections of this first chapter provide some general information about those components. Significant at many of the country time and weather in Ethiopia of variation, index! Section4.1 presents the models performance for the annual rainfall cycle and the spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall, and Sect. Researchers say it can reduce prediction uncertainties by around 50%. Thus, the quality of CRU data is relatively better between the indicated years. Beginning in the 1960s, GFDL scientists developed the first coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model, and have continued to pioneer improvements and advances in a growing modeling community. Several decades of climate research have shown seasonal temperature and rainfall patterns over southern Africa to be predictable months in advance. And percentage of variance explained by C/ ( C0 + C ) = %! Diverse rainfall and temperature patterns are largely the result of Ethiopia's location in Africa's tropical zone and the country's varied topography. 2003). } (2011a) suggest that the interannual rainfall variability during this season is ultimately controlled by large-scale SST anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific (the El NioSouthern Oscillation; ENSO) and the Indian Ocean, where warming/cooling events are associated with deficit/excess of rainfall over the central and northern half of the country. Then, visual inspection of the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-gridded rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia was used to identify the seasons and regions with specific teleconnection patterns. La Nia is the build up of cool waters in the equatorial . Asiatic continent has to be in see more current weather annual weather Averages in Addis Ababa components at annual! 9. This study analyses spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed, western Ethiopia.